Coastal Safety and Human Health: Climate Change
What is Climate Change?
The Earth’s climate has changed naturally throughout history. But a new type of climate change is altering the environment at an alarming rate. The climate is now warming so rapidly that some of its effects can be noticed within a single human lifetime. Scientists are largely convinced that human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, is responsible. Gases such as water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) act like blankets, trapping heat and keeping the earth warm. These gases can persist in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries.
Climate Change and Pennsylvania
In order for scientists to predict changes in temperature and precipitation over the coming decades, they must take into consideration the amount of heat trapping emissions the nation may be producing. To address this, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a widely used set of emissions scenarios. These scenarios describe future economic growth and energy use; and are important tools for understanding the long-term consquences of climate change. These are "what if" scenarios of future conditions, and are categorized based on high, medium, or low energy emissions.
The high scenario or "business as usual" scenario assumes that emissions will not change, and we will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuel intensive technologies. If states begin to rely more on resource efficient technologies, and emissions are cut, then estimations of change are based on a low emission scenario. The medium emission scenario is somewhere in the middle.
The following will discuss temperature and precipitation changes in Pennsylvania based on the high or low emission scenarios according to the Union of Concerned Scientists’ 2008 report:
Temperature
- Average daily temperatures are expected to increase 2.5°F between 2010 and 2039
- By mid-century, eastern Pennsylvania summers under a lower emission scenario will resembles those of current day Washington DC, and under a high emission scenario, will resemble those of North Carolina.
- By mid-century, western Pennsylvania summers under a low emission scenario will resemble those of current day southern Ohio, and under a high emission scenario, will resemble those of Kentucky.
- By mid-century, parts of southwestern and southeastern Pennsylvania could experience more than 50 days a year over 90°F.
- Areas of Pennsylvania that typically receive 30 or more days of snow in the winter season will shrink by roughly half as winter temperatures increase 8-12°F by the end of the 21st century.
Precipitation
Precipitation is expected to increase statewide by more than 5 percent- There will be an increase in the frequency of storm events such as heavy rainstorms
- The state may grow drier overall and experience more drought, because rainfall will not compensate for the drying effects of a warmer climate
- Precipitation will change seasonally with less precipitation in the summer and more in the winter
For more information view the Pennsylvania Sea Grant Climate Change Fact Sheet.
News and Events
- Dr. Michael Campbell of Mercyhurst College presented on Climate Change and Invasive Species at the Regional Science Consortium's Visiting Lecture Series on December 14, 2010.
View his presentation: "Is Climate Change Precipitating a Biological Meltdown in the Lake Erie Basin?"
- Delaware County Roadmap for Adaption to Coastal Risks
Date: September 22-23, 2010, 8:00 AM- 5:00 PM Location: John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge
View workshop draft agenda
For more information contact Ann Faulds or call 215-806-0894
- Erie County Climate Adaptation Workshop
Date: September 1, 2010, 10:30 AM- 4:30 PM
Location: Tom Ridge Environmental Center 301 Peninsula Drive, Erie PA 16505
Click here to view workshop agenda, presentation slides, and other workshop materials
- Climate Change in Pennsylvania – How Will it Impact You?
Pennsylvania Sea Grant held a 3-part webinar series that was geared to help Pennsylvania citizens stay informed on issues related to climate change. The webinars have been archived and are available for view by clicking on the link below.
- Google Climate Change News
Additional Climate Change Info:
References: Union of Concerned Scientists (2008) Climate Change in Pennsylvania: Impacts and Solutions for the Keystone State. A Climate Impacts Assessment for Pennsylvania.
Image credits: U.S Global Change Research Program
